Containerboard production char

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While the year-over-year drop is significant, it “is not unprecedented,” according to the American Forest & Paper Association.

North American containerboard production had its largest drop in years during the first quarter of 2026 , according to data from the American Forest & Paper Association. Box shipments also declined, according to quarterly data from the Fibre Box Association.

The more than 8% year-over-year decline in containerboard production that AF&PA reported for Q1 is the largest such drop in at least two years; the organization only has the last two years worth of its quarterly data posted publicly.

While an 8% decline is significant, it “is not unprecedented,” said Mark Pitts, AF&PA interim vice president of industry affairs, via email. He pointed to certain larger production declines in recent years, such as during Q4 2022 when production fell by more than 16% year over year and operating rates dropped to roughly 81%. That time period generally is viewed as when markets corrected following the COVID-19 pandemic demand boom.

This trend follows the large number of North American facility closures producers announced in 2025 that resulted in a historic, nearly 10% cut in industrywide production capacity. The last of the announced closures occurred earlier this year.

The Fibre Box Association’s data shows a 1.9% year-over-year decrease in box shipments in Q1. That figure is “a little worse than expected but still directionally in line” with the 1.3% to 1.8% decrease that Bloomberg Intelligence projected in November, said Ryan Fox, corrugated packaging market analyst, via email.

Multiple companies had reported during earnings calls earlier this year that they experienced production and shipping disruptions, along with extra costs , because of a winter storm in late January. Packaging Corporation of America again detailed the negative impacts during its Q1 earnings call last week.

Company executives also discussed how geopolitical and economic factors have contributed to market volatility, but volumes improved as the quarter progressed. Analysts broadly had expected to see some level of improvement with industrywide demand and shipments in Q1.

In an April 26 memo to investors, Michael Roxland, senior paper and packaging analyst at Truist Securities, noted the “ inclement weather early in the quarter significantly impacted shipments,” resulting in January actual box shipments dropping 7% year over year. That impact lessened in February with a 1.7% year-over-year decline, he said, and then shipments rose to 3.4% in March.

Volumes are mixed but improving, said George Staphos, BofA Securities analyst, in an April 27 memo to investors. He based that conclusion on the AF&PA and FBA quarterly reports along with three BofA industry sessions with companies and contacts. Paperboard volumes “ are (to put it generously) sluggish with potential for improvement,” Staphos said.

Observers had expected the rash of facility closures to boost operating rates , and that happened in late 2025 when rates rose to the low 90s; Staphos had projected rates could reach the mid-90s this year. However, even taking into consideration the closures that were finalized in February, Q1 operating rates remained flat year over year at 91.6% and were down sequentially from 92.3% in Q4 2025, Roxland noted.

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